A new national poll from the Wall Street Journal shows former President Donald Trump holding a narrow lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the race to succeed President Joe Biden. According to the survey released on Wednesday, Trump has 47% support among likely voters, while Harris trails slightly at 45%. The poll also includes third-party and independent candidates, and the race remains tight, as Trump’s lead falls within the margin of error.
Shift Since August Polling
This marks a reversal from the Journal’s previous poll in late August, where Harris held a two-point advantage. In a head-to-head matchup without third-party candidates, Trump extends his lead to 49% over Harris’s 46%, but again, this margin is within the survey’s error range, suggesting the race remains highly competitive.
Declining Favorability for Harris, Gains for Trump
The poll, conducted from October 19-22 among 1,500 registered voters, reveals a decline in public perception of Harris, whose favorability rating has dropped, now standing eight points underwater. Her approval rating as vice president is 42% positive, 54% negative. Meanwhile, Trump’s favorability has improved, with voters now approving of his past performance in the White House by a 52%-48% margin.
Fox News Poll Also Shows Trump Leading
The Wall Street Journal poll aligns with recent findings from a Fox News survey conducted October 11-14, where Trump led Harris by two points. However, other national polls, including those from CBS News, Marist, and USA Today/Suffolk University, have shown Harris with a slight edge. Many of these results fall within the margin of error, indicating a closely contested race.
Harris’s Surge and Subsequent Decline
Harris, who replaced a struggling President Biden as the Democratic nominee on July 21, initially saw a surge in fundraising and polling numbers. She maintained an advantage over Trump during and after the Democratic National Convention in August and the sole debate in early September. However, by late September and October, several polls began to show Trump gaining ground on Harris.
Pollster Analysis: Trump’s Subtle Gains Could Be Key
Chris Anderson, a Democratic pollster working with Fox News, noted that while Trump’s gains are subtle, they could prove consequential, especially among college-educated voters. He emphasized that the race has been within the margin of error for three months, and the outcome will likely depend on voter turnout rather than changing opinions.
Focus on Battleground States
Despite national poll numbers, the election outcome will hinge on key battleground states that determined Biden’s 2020 victory over Trump. Polls in these critical states also show the race too close to call, with most results within the margin of error.
Harris’s Financial Advantage in Final Campaign Push
As the election enters its final stretch, Harris enjoys a significant financial advantage over Trump. According to recent federal fundraising filings, the Harris campaign raised $221.8 million in September, more than three times the $63 million raised by Trump’s campaign during the same period.
Massive Spending by Harris Campaign
Harris has consistently outraised and outspent Trump in recent months, with her largest expenses focused on paid media, including extensive ad campaigns. As of the end of September, the Harris campaign reported having $187 million in cash reserves, compared to Trump’s $119 million.
Additional Fundraising Power
These totals don’t include additional money raised by party committees, affiliated organizations, or super PACs aligned with both Harris and Trump, which further boosts the financial power of both campaigns as they approach the final month of the election.
