The National Weather Service (NWS), under the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), projects that as many as five major hurricanes — Category 3 or stronger — could form in the Atlantic before November 30.

Lead forecaster Matthew Rosencrans said storm activity is outpacing usual timelines.
“Typically, the fourth named storm develops by August 15, and the first hurricane by August 11. This year, we’re already ahead on named storms, though slightly behind on hurricanes,” he noted.

So far, four named storms have formed — Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter. Only Tropical Storm Chantal made landfall, causing deadly floods in North Carolina.

Forecast: 13–18 Named Storms, Up to Nine Hurricanes

NOAA expects 13 to 18 named storms in total this season, including 5 to 9 hurricanes. Of those, 2 to 5 may intensify into Category 3 or stronger, with wind speeds above 110 mph.

Rosencrans emphasized that the outlook highlights the importance of preparedness:
“Know your risks. Coastal areas face storm surge, flooding and high winds. Inland, the threat is heavy rainfall. Make a kit, have a plan.”

Texans Urged to Prepare and Monitor Reliable Updates

Texans are advised to monitor hurricane updates via hurricanes.gov, the NWS Houston-Galveston forecast office, and official social media alerts.
“If an evacuation is ordered, leave as soon as possible,” Rosencrans warned. “We can rebuild property. We cannot rebuild lives.”

NOAA and Harris County Precinct 4 provide information on evacuation routes, emergency kits, and local resources.

State climatologist John Nielson-Gammon added:
“It only takes one storm making landfall near you to cause serious damage. Storm surge, high winds, and heavy rain can come from hurricanes at various strengths. Always plan for all threats.”

Staffing Challenges at the National Weather Service

600 Jobs Lost, But 450 Rehiring Approved

The forecast update comes amid staffing turbulence at the National Weather Service. Earlier this year, the agency lost about 600 employees after layoffs of probationary workers and early retirements encouraged by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

On August 6, the Trump administration authorized the rehiring of up to 450 staff members, reversing earlier cuts.

Union Welcomes Hiring Exemptions

Tom Fahy, legislative director for the National Weather Service Employee Organization, said the changes are “a major win” for both the agency and the administration. With exemptions from federal hiring freezes and direct-hire authority, NWS can begin to fill “critically understaffed offices.”

In Houston-Galveston, for example, meteorologist positions were 30% vacant as of mid-July. Such gaps affect flood predictions, coastal advisories, and aviation weather services.

Protecting Communities is Core Mission

While previously dismissed probationary employees will not receive preference in hiring, Fahy said their prior experience could give them an advantage.

“The mission of the National Weather Service is saving lives and protecting property. It’s a personal and honored profession because we safeguard communities across the country,” Fahy said.

Rosencrans stressed that despite the staffing challenges, the agency remains committed: “We are staffed to meet our mission right now. It’s all hands on deck for this hurricane season.”