A multi-day severe weather pattern is setting up across Texas this week, bringing the risk of damaging winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes. While a widespread outbreak is not expected, the setup signals the beginning of the state’s severe weather season.
The strongest storms are forecast to develop from North Texas into the Panhandle, staying largely north and west of Houston. The threat will also stretch beyond Texas into parts of the southern and central Plains, from the Dallas-Fort Worth region up toward Chicago.
Wednesday: North Texas Faces First Round
A slow-moving cold front will trigger Wednesday’s storms from Austin to the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. Ahead of the front, temperatures climbing into the 80s combined with dew points in the 60s will create a moist and unstable atmosphere favorable for strong storm development.
Storms are expected to intensify Wednesday afternoon, initially forming along and north of the Red River Valley. Between 4 p.m. and 6 p.m., scattered strong storms could develop near Dallas-Fort Worth, while a broken line of storms organizes in Oklahoma.
Supercell thunderstorms forming across North Texas during the evening hours will carry the greatest threat for large hail and isolated tornadoes. As storms move into Oklahoma later at night, damaging winds are likely to become the primary hazard.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the region under a Level 1 out of 5 severe weather risk, stretching from Austin to Cincinnati, Ohio. A higher Level 2 out of 5 risk, indicating scattered severe storms, includes areas from Waco and Dallas-Fort Worth to northwestern Arkansas.
Thursday: West Texas and Panhandle at Risk
On Thursday, the focus shifts westward. West Texas and the Panhandle face another round of severe weather potential.
A strengthening low-pressure system over eastern Colorado will pull strong southeasterly winds into Texas, increasing moisture levels. At the same time, a dry line separating humid and dry air masses is expected to extend from eastern New Mexico into West Texas.
Storms developing along this dry line could become supercells capable of producing tornadoes and large hail, with some hailstones possibly exceeding two inches in diameter. Thursday’s Level 2 risk area covers cities including Midland, Wichita Falls and Amarillo.
Friday: Storms Expand East Toward Central Texas
By Friday, the severe weather threat shifts eastward into Central and North Texas and expands into the central Plains, reaching as far north as Chicago and St. Louis.
As daytime heating increases instability, storms are likely to become more widespread Friday afternoon. Travelers along the Interstate 35 corridor between Austin and Dallas-Fort Worth may experience delays due to heavy rain and strong storms.
Friday’s primary hazards include large hail, damaging winds and a few possible tornadoes. The highest risk area is expected from the Red River Valley north into Kansas and Missouri.
Houston Outlook
Through Friday, Southeast Texas including Houston is expected to remain mostly south of the main severe weather zone. However, as the cold front approaches over the weekend, the chance for stronger storms may increase.
Forecasters say confidence in the weekend outlook will improve as additional weather data becomes available later this week.
